Assessing the Sensitivity of Sociotechnical Water Distribution Systems to Uncertainty in Consumer Behaviors: Social Distancing and Demand Changes During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Water distribution systems (WDSs) exhibit intricate, nonlinear behaviors shaped by both internal dynamics and external influences. The incorporation of additional models, such as contamination or population models, further increases their complexity. This study investigated WDSs under various uncertainty scenarios to enhance system stability, robustness, and control. In particular, we built upon prior research by exploring an Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) framework integrated within a WDS, focusing on three types of uncertainties: (1) adjustments to existing probabilistic parameters, (2) variations in agent movement across network nodes, and (3) changes in agent distributions across different node types. We conducted our analysis using the virtual city of Micropolis as a testbed. Our findings indicate that while the system remains resilient to uncertainties in predefined probabilistic parameters, substantial and often nonlinear effects arise when uncertainties are introduced in agent mobility and distribution patterns. These results emphasize the significance of understanding how WDSs respond to external behavioral dynamics, which is essential for managing real-world challenges, such as pandemics or shifts in urban behavior. This study underscores the necessity for further research into broader uncertainty categories and emergent effects to enhance WDS modeling and inform decision-making.