To predict human choice, consider the context

Research output: Contribution to journalShort surveypeer-review

3 Scopus citations


Choice prediction competitions suggest that popular models of choice, including prospect theory, have low predictive accuracy. Peterson et al. show the key problem lies in assuming each alternative is evaluated in isolation, independently of the context. This observation demonstrates how a focus on predictions can promote understanding of cognitive processes.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)819-820
Number of pages2
JournalTrends in Cognitive Sciences
Issue number10
StatePublished - Oct 2021


  • decisions under risk
  • decisions under uncertainty
  • machine learning
  • reliance on small samples

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Neuropsychology and Physiological Psychology
  • Experimental and Cognitive Psychology
  • Cognitive Neuroscience


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