TY - JOUR
T1 - Affordability with an Expiration Date
T2 - A Microsimulation for Estimating the Demographic Changes Caused by Deregulation of Assisted Housing
AU - Yavo-Ayalon, Sharon
AU - Levine, Daphna
AU - Sussman, Shai
AU - Aharon Gutman, Meirav
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2023.
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - This research turns the spotlight to the deregulation of once publicly funded affordable housing. Through a microsimulation that follows the conversion from affordable to market-rate units on Roosevelt Island New York, we estimate the expected demographic changes each year between 1976 and 2070. The simulation combines information from the American Community Survey, the island's masterplan, the privatization agreements, and interviews with residents, to produce interactive graphs at three urban scales: the neighborhood, the project, and the building. We found that while the households of market-rate units are gradually becoming younger and more affluent, the households of affordable units are becoming older and more impoverished. Despite an individual agreement for each building, the demographic changes are similar, and that, those changes will affect low-income buildings first. Moreover, upon expiration, 30 percent of the existing protected tenants will be over 65 and at risk of being displaced. The simulation is available at http://ridigitaltwin.pythonanywhere.com/.
AB - This research turns the spotlight to the deregulation of once publicly funded affordable housing. Through a microsimulation that follows the conversion from affordable to market-rate units on Roosevelt Island New York, we estimate the expected demographic changes each year between 1976 and 2070. The simulation combines information from the American Community Survey, the island's masterplan, the privatization agreements, and interviews with residents, to produce interactive graphs at three urban scales: the neighborhood, the project, and the building. We found that while the households of market-rate units are gradually becoming younger and more affluent, the households of affordable units are becoming older and more impoverished. Despite an individual agreement for each building, the demographic changes are similar, and that, those changes will affect low-income buildings first. Moreover, upon expiration, 30 percent of the existing protected tenants will be over 65 and at risk of being displaced. The simulation is available at http://ridigitaltwin.pythonanywhere.com/.
KW - New York
KW - affordable housing
KW - deregulation
KW - microsimulation
KW - tipping point
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85159056463&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/10780874231169213
DO - 10.1177/10780874231169213
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AN - SCOPUS:85159056463
SN - 1078-0874
JO - Urban Affairs Review
JF - Urban Affairs Review
ER -