TY - JOUR
T1 - Initial signs of post-covid-19 physical structures of cities in Israel
AU - Rybnikova, Nataliya
AU - Broitman, Dani
AU - Czamanski, Daniel
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
PY - 2023/12
Y1 - 2023/12
N2 - The physical structure of cities is the result of self-organization processes in which profit-maximizing developers are key players. The recent Covid-19 pandemic was a natural experiment by means of which it is possible to gain insights into shifts in the spatial structure of cities by studying developers’ behavior. Behavioral changes of urbanites triggered by the quarantine and lockdown periods, such as home-based work and online shopping on scales that were unthinkable heretofore, are expected to persist. These are likely to induce changes in the demand for housing, for work, and for retail space, impacting developers’ decisions. Associated changes in the land values at different locations are occurring faster than changes of the physical shape of urban landscapes. It is possible that current changes in dwelling preferences will result in significant future shifts in the locational incidence of the urban intensities. We test this hypothesis by examining changes in land values during the last two years by means of a land value model calibrated with vast Geo-referenced data of the major metropolitan area in Israel. Data concerning all real estate transactions include information about the assets and the price of the exchanges. In parallel, built densities are calculated using detailed building data. Based on these data, we estimate the changes of land values for different types of dwellings before and during the pandemic. The result allows us to highlight possible initial signs of post-Covid-19 urban structures, driven by shifting behavior of developers.
AB - The physical structure of cities is the result of self-organization processes in which profit-maximizing developers are key players. The recent Covid-19 pandemic was a natural experiment by means of which it is possible to gain insights into shifts in the spatial structure of cities by studying developers’ behavior. Behavioral changes of urbanites triggered by the quarantine and lockdown periods, such as home-based work and online shopping on scales that were unthinkable heretofore, are expected to persist. These are likely to induce changes in the demand for housing, for work, and for retail space, impacting developers’ decisions. Associated changes in the land values at different locations are occurring faster than changes of the physical shape of urban landscapes. It is possible that current changes in dwelling preferences will result in significant future shifts in the locational incidence of the urban intensities. We test this hypothesis by examining changes in land values during the last two years by means of a land value model calibrated with vast Geo-referenced data of the major metropolitan area in Israel. Data concerning all real estate transactions include information about the assets and the price of the exchanges. In parallel, built densities are calculated using detailed building data. Based on these data, we estimate the changes of land values for different types of dwellings before and during the pandemic. The result allows us to highlight possible initial signs of post-Covid-19 urban structures, driven by shifting behavior of developers.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Dwelling preferences
KW - Land value
KW - Urban real-estate
KW - Urban structure
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85159726631&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s12076-023-00346-8
DO - 10.1007/s12076-023-00346-8
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AN - SCOPUS:85159726631
SN - 1864-4031
VL - 16
JO - Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences
JF - Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences
IS - 1
M1 - 25
ER -