Machine learning for nocturnal diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using digital oximetry biomarkers

Objective. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a highly prevalent chronic condition. COPD is a major cause of morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs globally. Spirometry is the gold standard test for a definitive diagnosis and severity grading of COPD. However, a large proportion of individuals with COPD are undiagnosed and untreated. Given the high prevalence of COPD and its clinical importance, it is critical to develop new algorithms to identify undiagnosed COPD. This is particularly true in specific disease groups in which the presence of concomitant COPD increases overall morbidity/mortality such as those with sleep-disordered breathing. To our knowledge, no research has looked at the feasibility of automated COPD diagnosis using a data-driven analysis of the nocturnal continuous oximetry time series. We hypothesize that patients with COPD will exert certain patterns and/or dynamics of their overnight oximetry time series that are unique to this condition and that may be captured using a data-driven approach. Approach. We introduce a novel approach to nocturnal COPD diagnosis using 44 oximetry digital biomarkers and five demographic features and assess its performance in a population sample at risk of sleep-disordered breathing. A total of n=350 unique patients' polysomnography (PSG) recordings were used. A random forest (RF) classifier was trained using these features and evaluated using nested cross-validation. Main results. The RF classifier obtained F1 = 0.86 ± 0.02 and AUROC = 0.93 ± 0.02 on the test sets. A total of 8 COPD individuals out of 70 were misclassified. No severe cases (GOLD 3-4) were misdiagnosed. Including additional non-oximetry derived PSG biomarkers resulted in minimal performance increase. Significance. We demonstrated for the first time, the feasibility of COPD diagnosis from nocturnal oximetry time series for a population sample at risk of sleep-disordered breathing. We also highlighted what set of digital oximetry biomarkers best reflect how COPD manifests overnight. The results motivate that overnight single channel oximetry can be a valuable modality for COPD diagnosis, in a population sample at risk of sleep-disordered breathing. Further data is needed to validate this approach on other population samples.